Johnson is coming

So riding in on a pack of lies comes the nations saviour, Boris "Shagger" Johnson. Ready to hurl the country into the unknown territory of a no-deal exit from the European Union in order to enforce the democratic will of the British people.

Before we had Theresa May, who despite her tough talk was not prepared to go ahead with this act of folly because, in reality, no one really knows what will happen as a consequence.  Boris is not constrained by any form of conscience or similarly feels in any way responsible for his actions, therefore exiting the European Union in the most abrupt and final way possible is something he has no qualms about doing.

The future leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party of the United Kingdom does not understand what or why he is doing as he is doing, he just knows that when he says that he is going to do it, the people who's opinions he values (Conservative writers, politicians and thinkers) tell him that it is what people want.  Therefore he will do it.

The irony, oh the sweet, bitter irony.

In the same way that Lenin supported the first world war as a means of finally destroying the Tsarist regime, it may make sense for those of a left wing persuasion to standby while Boris takes this final step into the unknown.  Fast forward 18 months...

Following the chaotic exit from the UK the economy has flat-lined.  Lacking any method of supporting the economy, the government struggles to support a currency that has fallen a further 20% in anticipation of a structural decline in appetite for British exports and the collapse of trade in Ireland.  To support the currency the Bank of England vacillates between sending messages about the need for currency stability (higher rates) but also the need to support the economy (lower rates).  No one knows what they are going to do, so the exchange rate continues to meander downwards.  This prolonged and interminable decline prompts calls for the Conservative government to "Take Back Control" of monetary policy, while across the Atlantic, the newly elected government of Donald Trump does exactly that.

The Irish question remains unanswered, as the border remains there as the hard fact of a failed EU negotiation. Its effectiveness is unenforced on the UK side and randomly enforced on the EU side.  The presence of this border and the responsibility for its damaging effects being blamed on the Unionist Party causes a haemoraging of support for that party and a collapse in their vote share. The Unionist approach to this is to effectively kick the implementation of the Stormont agreement into the long grass, prolonging their hold on power but further stirring popular discontent as the Northern Irish economy strongly goes into reverse.

In the UK, with elections not due for a further year and the economy ticking downwards, a further exodus of foreign capital sees investment declining and industrial unrest increasing.  The Conservative Party, led by a now thrice disgraced Boris Johnson, who's multiple blunders and personal scandals have seen his already wafer thin personal prestige destroyed, veers further to the right, attempting to whip up a nationalistic rhetoric blaming immigrants and Europeans for the UKs travails.  Unsurprisingly, this bellicose rhetoric sees an uptick in popular support for the renamed British National Conservative Party but also a similar uptick in popular discontent, manifested in violent attacks against minorities and European symbols.

Negotiations with the EU, at an impasse since Johnson's virulent attacks comparing the EU to the Nazis and the UKs unwillingness to assist the EU on various security matters get no further.  With little left to negotiate on, capital controls and tit for tat border disputes over trade effectively disrupt UK / European trade which falls to levels not seen since the 1970s.  Symbolically, the London market begins to lose large multi-national champions to the Hong Kong and US markets.  HSBC, Vodafone, Glaxo Smithkline, Standard Chartered and various other companies shift head offices and listings away from the London market.

Johnson's intrepid team of free market trade negotiaters endeavour to negotiate with the US and China, however the EU blocks the Chinese leg of negotiations and the egregious demands of the US negotiators, coupled with the lack of authority of the UK negotiators means that negotiations lead nowhere.  Opportunistically, the UK and Russia sign a new deal granting broader access to the UK market for Russian capital and access to the Russian market for UK firms.  The deal increases the presence of Russian capital in the UK and ties the UK ever more closely to the Russian government.  Similar deals with various Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, see a further influx of capital to offset the relentless drain of EU sourced capital.