Wednesday 4 May 2022

Boris Johnson, what is the end game here? Economics

Boris Johnson remains the leader in waiting of the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom and thus, by default, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.  As he continues to face flak from the opposition Labour Party in parliament, he has continued to rebuild his credibility within the Conservative Party and he has realised that in the current environment, this is the only game that matters.  Newspapers, commentators and opposition MPs can say what they want, but the UK political structure means there is only one constituency he needs to appeal to over the next month, and they're 359 of them currently sitting in the House of Commons.

The Conservatives have an enormous majority in the House of Commons and if they can right their political ship, they can pass pretty much any legislation that they want.  In reality they are a supine group of crypto-fascistic doctrinaire monetarists (Baker, Sunak, Javid, Bridgen) who pretend that they are a diverse group of free-thinkers.  In reality there is little intellectual capability in the party.  Therefore they will revert to what they have been doing for the last 12 years.

Economy:

Tax cuts for wealthy people, stealthy administrative style taxes to finance the inevitable costs of the state and more quasi-private PFI style financing which increases the "role of private capital" in the economy.  In reality, this means more of the same with less authority in government to police the rent-seeking investments which the private sector players will extract from the government.  So lets have a look at shares in John Laing (oh sorry you can't it's owned by KKR) Serco (disastrous share price performance under Conservatives so far so plenty of potential upside), Capita, Skanska and the roll-call of others who benefit from the gradual undermining of the state.  

Hilariously, in the way in which only our financial capitalist system knows,  the system is gradually eating itself as the rents from these Public-Private Partnerships are extracted by private companies, often domiciled in offshore low tax jurisdictions. These vehicles are not subject to any form of public scrutiny, as this is a much nicer and safer way to extract rents from the government than doing it via a publicly listed vehicle like Capita which has annoying independent directors and public disclosure requirements.  Set your company up in the British Virgin Islands, call it "Essential Equitable Funding Diversified Limited" and run your (UK subsidiary) through it and then own that company via another shell company and you have helpfully obfuscated not only your own ownership of the company but also voided any true transparency on your costs which means that once you have bypassed the governments pathetically resourced departments with responsibility for overseeing the value-for-money on the contracts, you can charge what you like.  I doubt Private Eye will be able to do an FOI request on Essential Equitable Funding Diversified Limited, it doesn't apply FOI style transparency requests.  It's in the British Virgin Islands (theoretically).

After that the money extracted from the transaction ships out to Monaco or wherever the underlying beneficiary is pretending to live whereupon they structure it into their "Private Wealth Vehicle" and then it comes back into the global pool of financialised capital. This currently, used to spend most of it's time investing in United States-based technology companies who seek to undermine all personal privacy (Google, sorry Alphabet and Facebook) or become rent-seeking virtual landlord monopolists (Microsoft and Apple) or set-out on their missions to undermine the rest of the economy (Amazon) or simply to advance the interests of a megalomaniac and invest in crypto-currencies (Tesla).  Nothing is stopping this insane cycle, but at some point you might want to at least unhitch your horse from this as it's not going anywhere good soon and the benefits it derives to any modern economy are minimal.  However, it does enrich an ever-shrinking portion of the worlds population and many of those people are either Conservatives themselves (Rishi Sunak) or substantial donors to the Conservative project.

In the interim they're going to have to deal with a population which is adjusting to an ever increasing cost of living crisis with a toolset composed of a strange nationalistic screaming culture war and an economics policy consisting of tax breaks on tax rises, cut-price rail tickets and flags.


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