Sunday, 30 April 2023

Daniel Cohen · To Monopolise Our Ears: What Spotify Wants · LRB 4 May 2023

The inevitable fate of Spotify, as it careers towards revenue free bankruptcy is an interesting case in point about who is actually making money from the way in which our economy and society is established and evolves.

Spotify seemed to have been destroying the music establishment by subverting the process by which people obtained music, but instead if one analyses the real direction of travel, it appears much more to be the outrider of the very forces who had been impacted far more by the first forces of the internet, the record labels.

Really it was they who were hammered by file sharing rather than anyone else (including musicians themselves) and it is they who coopted the streaming services to effectively become extensions of the record labels and the music industry.  

Now Spotify , despite it's success, has realized the Faustian pact it made and as it desperately tries to extract something for itself from the shitty deal it entered into, it has realized all to late that if you are the company that fronts a service but someone else makes all the money, then it is not in your company where the value lies and where the real control lies. Control is power and it has been a long time since Spotify has been in control of its own destiny.

https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v45/n09/daniel-cohen/to-monopolise-our-ears 

Thursday, 5 January 2023

Adam Tooze - Chartbook #185 Inflation and distributional conflict - in 2023 not 1973! Also a response to the debate around that Blanchard thread.

Just got the latest Chartbook entry from Adam Tooze who is fast becoming my favourite economic commentator of all time.

You can find him on substack here.

Watching the whole debate in the finance world about what the path of interest rates will be or discussing whether inflation targets should be 2 or 4 percent strike me as akin to people shifting deck chairs on the deck of a sinking ship.

None of these things ever did really make a difference. The "market crash" we witnessed last year was simply the removal of some of the froth through zero interest rates being unwound. There has been literally zero transmission between those changes and the real economy thus far.  We are just at the beginning of a tightening cycle in terms of it's real implications for the real economy.

The whole thing is a sham. The real problem we have is that much of the worlds productive capacity is being driven by a system which focuses productive capacity on ridiculous things which are not doing anything to address any of the worlds challenges (weaponry, financialized investment services, technological developments to sell and market products, rockets to take us to Mars, murderous self driving cars).

Fortunately large parts of the world have realized this and moved away from it. However this does not include the Anglo-speaking world who also love building weapons. So that will end well.

Wednesday, 28 December 2022

Twitterers be Capitalists to

Been listening to a lot of my podcasters lately and given that a lot of them are fairly left wing, other than in the tech community, there has been a bit of silence around any potential move to Mastodon.  I couldn't quite understand this, particularly someone like Phoebe Roy complaining that the Mastodon interface is too complicated or that they just can't understand it.  Given these are all pretty technically savvy people I found it strange that they were seemingly so inept at using a fairly intuitive interface.  I mean for fucks sake we all grew up using the far more basic and clunky original message boards and chat functions of things like Yahoo which Mastodon is ten times better than.

But then it struck me, these are people with thousands of followers on Twitter.  They have both a significant social and financial stake in Twitter insofar as their careers are partly based on having a large number of people who follow them on Twitter and react to their postings.  They are part of the Twitter fabric and thus wont want to lose the social currency they have built up on the platform and which is inherently tied to the platform.  Like capitalists building up their capital, Twitters community of posters are building up their Twitter capital and the last thing they want is this fucking Mastodon thing coming along and diminishing it by creating an alternative platform which diminishes their social capital.  They will paasively resist it until the time comes to actively resist it.  

Just like a good capitalist defends their own capital against all alternatives....

Tuesday, 27 December 2022

The process of Creation

Art Spiegelman's "Maus" comics are probably, alongside "Barefoot Gen", the most impactful pieces of art I have been exposed to.  The way in which they bring together the hideous impact of racism, war and hate in an entirely different setting but using the same artistic structure moves me still to this day. They are very different projects insofar as the structure of the comics and the artistic style is quite different, but the gripping way in which they involve you in the protagonists very different stories is so moving, so well considered, so impactful. 

They are difficult pieces of work to invocate the term "love", can you "love" work which deals with such distressing and serious topics (hat tip to Christian Hunt for an excellent recent podcast on this) but I think I can attribute so much meaning and power to these artworks. In a way I love the way in which they have done so much to bring to our attention the horrors of the Holocaust and the Second World War.  Part of a long tradition of works which have sought to do this but which I think these art works have done more impactfully than the many other things I have read, listened to and watched on these topics.  They make you feel uncomfortable and are somewhat painful in their excoriating treatment of such awful topics but at the same time they so viscerally put you in the position of these nightmarish and entirely man-made situations... Intense, brilliant work by two very different masters of their very different but intensely meaningful artistic styles.


Monday, 28 November 2022

[The Washington Post] High-profile Republicans gain followers in first weeks of Musk’s reign

A very interesting article which highlights how Twitter is being hijacked by the right wing stalwarts but also shows how Truth Social is being suffocated by Elno.  Watch to see what happens as Musk explicitly backs de-Insantis against Trump....  It fucks Trumps investment which for Trump is not an acceptable state of affairs... Never separate a man from his grift.  This beautiful spider diagram shows the outperformance of Republican politicians on Twitter and the seeming slump in Democratic politicians.  What it doesn't show is the median incomes of the people who have left the platform.  Might be a challenge for the company in the long run when revenue falls below costs despite a 75% reduction in staff.
 
Goodbye Twitter...

High-profile Republicans gain followers in first weeks of Musk's reign

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/11/27/musk-followers-bernie-cruz/
 

 

 

Sunday, 9 October 2022

Whither the rate of interest...?

It's quite clear that many people feel that the world has turned into a place of rentier capital, where the toiling masses work and slave and where a coterie of rich and privileged people sit above them extracting the benefits of their toil.  This is a Marxist analysis of the world but it's quite interesting how so many other political theories effectively espouse the same analysis but with different beneficiaries.

The neo-Trumpian analysis is that it is a bloated government sector and a distant corporate-government elite who sit atop the pyramid of mankind.

The racialised analysis is that it is a group of people from a specific racial or ethnic group, depending on your perspective, who sit atop the pyramid.

The libertarian-capitalist analysis is that there are a few entrepreneurial superstars who support something of an inverse pyramid, albeit they swell the ranks of this scant pyramidical base by including diverse groups such as "the self employed" which in the US includes virtually anyone in work because of the hideous "employee at will" system.  Atop the pyramid sit an array of secure corporate and government interests (very similar to the Trumpian analysis but they accept more corporate interests in the libertarian base).

The Marxian analysis obviously places the workers at the base of the pyramid and the capitalists at the top of the pyramid.  The way in which you define "worker" in this context being a point of contention which has been discussed between Marxist theorists for many decades.

These analyses are all well and good but there is an interesting generational trend which has developed over the last 80 years as the concept of pensions have been implemented throughout the (developed) world.  

The owners of much of the worlds wealth have historically been, at least in the OECD countries in the preceding 100 years, both older, whiter and more female.  There are a multitude of reasons for this, which I wouldn't even hope to dissect in any great detail here beyond saying imperialism, longevity and the nature of earnings power.  Pensions and financialisation have provided an interesting backdrop for this as they have effectively converted what was an implicit promise of support; ie, you looked after me when I was a kid and so I will look after you when you are old; into an explicit promise of support; ie, you own lots of stuff which you can convert into cash when you are old and give to me in exchange for looking after you.

But "hang on" I hear you say, for it has ever been thus.  The older members of society have always been in control of the majority of our collective wealth and this covenant between young and old is and explicit part of any social contract.  The elderly, as we consider them today, looked after the nations wealth in the past and they continue to do so today.  The pattern of wealth ownership by generational cohort (adjusted for life expectancy) in 2020 is similar to that of 1900.  Why would this be different now?  

The key difference that seems to be the case now is the explicit nature of the current promise via the structure of finance and capital.  Historically we could say that a society looked after it's elderly because it built them things and provided them with services and looked after them, but this was not necessarily a consequence of a direct transfer of pecuniary wealth, similar to the type expressed in a conventional pensions arrangement.  It did these things through a form of social engagement and interaction.  Now the mechanism for this was very different and not really in anyway democratic,  however it certainly was not at the behest of a global "market".

This provision often happened in the context of the family or social group.  I use the term social group broadly speaking here, so for any purpose be it religious, cultural, military, state, etc.  It also happened through existing social and political structures of power.  I apologize at this juncture because I am now sounding like the aforementioned Marxist theorists.  What I am really driving at is that in the past, there were civil and governmental organizations which determined the direction of this implicit promise to look after the next generation.  The church maintained it's own enormous hierarchy and direction of thousands of lives and their collective power.  The state and it's various tributary arms (be they military, judicial, legislative, etc) did the same. Civil society (guilds, societies, companies, etc) operated in much the same way.  These structures had evolved from previous structures in feudal times which revolved more around family, feudal and local agglomerations.

Today these structures, while not dispensed with entirely, are enormously diminished from a power perspective.  Power has instead been centralized between an administrative state and a market which determines what should and should not be purchased to the overall benefit of the collective good via the pensions mechanism which dominate our society.  It sounds odd to talk of collective good when thinking about finance but in reality it's pensions which, at least until recently and this demented surge to turn your house into your pension fund, have driven the choices which are made from an investment perspective by our pension funds

But whither the old collective pension funds, whither the last vestiges of our old societal constraints.  Today we are now all saving into our individual pension funds where we are apportioned what we put in with the delta of a series of personal investment decisions which we may want to make, or we may not want to make.  With this final change, alongside the rise of the home ownership pension fund, the last vestiges of our old structure are finally disappearing.  It is not that the elderly sit atop all others at the top of the pyramid, but that the pyramid is effectively now dictated by a force subject not to the will of human beings, but to the will of the market.  And god knows where that will take us.

Monday, 5 September 2022

The Facade begins to crack - The Conservatives and the British public


 Watching the detritus of the Conservative Party swill across our screens in a phantasmagoric maelstrom of cretiny, one cannot be horrified by the state of the filth that run the UK government at the moment.  So many of the people in that party are so devoid of principle or courage, so riven with multiple personality disorders and so lacking in any form of moral fiber, it warms the heart to think of their impending doom.

I look forward to their impending annihilation at the polls but what real comfort does that provide?  By that point they're likely to have bankrupted the country, completely destroyed the provision of public services, hastened an impending climate meltdown and fostered such division in society that people will likely start living in gated communities.  They may lose, but given the shit show which is the opposition and the total lack of fight they show, what's the fucking point of fostering this kind of positive thinking?  Liz Truss has no mandate for anything other than a small set of tax tweaks which will make very little difference to many people in the country apart from the wealthiest.  Her policy on energy prices will mainly rely on pumping government money into the Saudi state; you can almost see the bank balance falling as the money spews out of the country into the hands of the Middle Eastern autocrats who will maybe buy some weapons technology in exchange, oh and your house in London.

The whole thing is a desperate fucking failure, the UK is fucked, it was fucked in 2013 when I left, and it's fucked now.  The UK and US political systems, while notionally "democratic" are in fact plutocracies which support a bizarre mix of property owners, foreign investors and a gerontocracy of wealthy older people.

 


One thing I am keen on understanding, Liz Truss is going to "do something" about energy bills, by effectively handing a load of money over to the Russians and various other natural gas producers.  Why is she doing this though?  Why does she want to destroy the country through gradually transferring all of it's collective wealth oversees in the hope that the same overseas investors might park it back here and buy everyone's houses so that Britain can become the Conservative dream of a nation of indentured tenants?  This cannot be her logic.  Is it so that we can all vote Conservative in 2024?  I doubt it, the Conservatives are going to be so comprehensively morally bankrupt by 2024 that the chances of them winning a majority without instigating a war is pretty low.  Maybe the Argentinians or a similar small foreign power might gift them a a propaganda victory, however this is irrelevant anyway, you don't need to throw $100bn out the window in anticipation of that.  

I think the challenge is that they know that if they don't bail out everyone from paying their gas bill in 2022, then people wont pay them.  If 10,000 people don't pay their gas bill, you can repossess their cars or harass them to breakdown in a process of state sponsored abuse.  If 2 million people don't pay their gas bill and are criminalized, with the corresponding loss of "franchise", the government falls.  The Conservative Party is effectively an arm of the British state.  It exists in symbiosis with the British State and it always will.  The British state will dissolve if 2 million people are criminalized, it's too many.  All Conservatives remember Thatcher and the poll tax riots.  The country cannot support more than a certain amount of limited civil unrest.  


 

Let's all watch this space to see whether Truss' gamble, that she can bluff her way through and con the markets and the people of Britain, holds.  My prediction is that it doesn't and she's doomed anyway, hopefully tearfully running to her armored car as a baying mob breaks down the gates to Downing Street to be airlifted to her Jersey safe house.  Where she discovers that Boris Johnson has double crossed her and hands her back to the provisional government to be tried for treason.


 

Joe Lycett has begun to tear back the facade of this morally bankrupt bunch of shit eaters.  Lets hope the cretinous British public let him help them see.  Or watch them get distracted by trans-women in Harry Potter or some similar thing while Liz Truss metaphorically burgles their house and Nigel Farage poses with a pint.  In Guernsey.



Understanding Brecht - Walter Benjamin

Brecht, Brecht, Brecht. The name appears everywhere, in my reading, in my life, in day-to-day thumbing through periodicals. People refer t...